Name: Sunac China
Price: HK$4.75 (At Close Price, 22 Nov 2012)
Market Cap (m): HK$14,301
Market Cap (m): US$1,845
Current valuation (DCF): HK$7.50
12mth price target: HK$5.57
Recommendation: Outperform Event
• CDH placed 130m shares of Sunac China (SUNC) at a price range between HK$4.28-4.38/share, versus yesterday's closing price of HK$4.75. These shares are 51% of CDH's stake in SUNC, 14.6% of free float and 4.3% of total shares of SUNC. After the placement, Bain Capital will continue to hold 300m (10%) shares of SUNC, and CDH will have 125m (4.2%) shares.
事件：
鼎晖已配售融创中国1.3亿股，配股价介乎4.28-4.38元，较昨日收市价4.75元，折让7.8%至10%。配售部分是鼎晖所持融创股份的51%，占融创总股数的4.3%及市面流通部分的14.6%。配售之后，贝恩资本仍持有融创约3亿股（10%）股票，而鼎晖持有融创约1.25亿股（4.2%）股票。
Impact
• Placement put short-term pressure on stock price but bodes well for the stock liquidity. We believe the placement is positive to SUNC's share price performance in the long run, considering there is no EPS dilution (secondary share placement) and some big funds can take more stake on SUNC with the improving liquidity (placement is 14.6% of SUNC' free float).
• Recent two site acquisitions will boost NAV by HK$0.58/share. SUNC acquired two sites in November in Chongqing (GFA of 400k sqm with land cost of Rmb2.4k/sqm) and Hangzhou (GFA of 77k sqm with land cost of Rmb8k/sqm), which we believe will achieve decent gross margin above 30% and the two sites will enhance our NAV estimates by HK$0.58/share (HK$7.5/share excluding the two sites).
• Sales will be more than Rmb40bn in 2013F and core earnings will be Rmb4.7bn in 2014F: we expect the company will achieve more than Rmb40bn contacted sales in 2013F backed by an impressive Rmb75bn in saleable resources, based on our estimates. And the core earnings will be Rmb4.7bn in 2014F, which is equal to Shimao, Agile and Guangzhou R&F core earnings in 2012F.
影响：
一、虽然配售会在短期内造成股价的下行压力，但是却为股票增加了流动性。我们相信这次配股对于融创股价长期表现的影响是积极的，体现在：1、没有每股盈利的稀释（二级股票配售） 2、流动性增加后很多大的基金可以更多地买入融创股票。
二、融创近两次获取土地可以将每股NAV提升0.58元港币，达到7. 5港币。我们相信融创在重庆和杭州新获取的土地的毛利率都会在30%以上的高水平上。
三、基于我们的预测，融创将会在2013年拥有750亿元人民币的总可售货值， 2013年销售额将会超过400亿元人民币，2014年核心净利将会达到47亿元人民币，和世茂、雅居乐和富力2012年的核心净利处于同一水平上。
Action and recommendation
• We view SUNC as the best candidate to grow into a mid-cap among small-cap developers due to impressive execution and strong sales growth. Stock currently trades at 3.8x 2013E P/E and at a 37% discount to NAV. Outperform.
建议：
鉴于融创令人印象深刻的管理能力和出色的销售增长，我们认为融创是小型房企中最有可能成长为中型房企的公司。融创股票目前的交易价格在3.8倍PE水平，和我们预测的NAV有37%的折让。跑赢大盘。
11月23日Bloomberg报道，融创上市前投资者鼎晖昨天以每股4.33港元出售其持有的4.3％（其总控股比例为8.5%）融创股票，较昨天（11月22日）收市价4.75港元折让8.8％，较2012年的最终资产净值预测11.10港元折让61%
截至下午三点，融创股价一度超过昨日4.75元的收盘价，达到4.80高位。在老股东配售的情况下，股价能实现在一天内即反弹并保持持续上涨势头，实属难得。体现了融创良好的发展势头及股价巨大的上升空间。
