[GS/GH] Sunac (1918.HK; Buy): Share offload by PE; retain Buy on high growth/attractive valuation
Bloomberg News reported on November 23 that CDH Aurora, a private equity (PE) investor of Sunac, sold 4.3% (or 130mn shares) out of its total 8.5% holding in Sunac at HK$4.33 per share yesterday, representing an 8.8% discount to the last closing price of HK$4.75 (Nov 22) and a 61% discount to our end-2012E NAV estimate of HK$11.10.
Analysis
1. We note that the share sale price implied total proceeds of US$73mn will cover CDH’s initial investment cost in Sunac (at HK$2.4 per share). Post the share sales, CDH still holds c.125mn shares (or 4.2% of Sunac’s total shares).
2. Moreover, we note that the remaining two major pre-IPO investors are Bain Capital and New Horizon, which still hold c.10%/less than 1% of Sunac’s total shares at initial investment cost of HK$2.02/HK$2.4 per share, respectively.
3. Given these PEs are more financial investors rather than strategic ones, we do not think the share sale from PEs will have any material impact on Sunac’s operations.
Implications
The stock is currently trading at 57% discount to our end-2012E NAV, 4.7X 2012E P/E vs. offshore coverage average of 43%/8.8X respectively.
In our view, any pullback in the share price due to concerns over PE sales should present an opportunity for investors to accumulate Sunac shares, which we view as one of the most attractive names among our offshore coverage universe given its high growth potential on the back of an experienced management team, its focused & consistent development strategy in top-tier cities of China, as well as its strong execution track record built since IPO in 2010.
Maintain Buy and our 12-m target price.
高盛高华：融创—PE投资者减持，鉴于公司的高增长及诱人的估值，强烈建议买入
事实：
11月23日Bloomberg报道，融创上市前投资者鼎晖昨天以每股4.33港元出售其持有的4.3％（其总控股比例为8.5%）融创股票，较昨天（11月22日）收市价4.75港元折让8.8％，较2012年的最终资产净值预测11.10港元折让61%
1. 我们注意到，此次出售的7300万美元总收益将覆盖鼎晖投入融创的初始投资成本（每股2.4港元）。在减持股份后，鼎晖仍持有约1250万的股份（约为融创股份总数的4.2％）；
2. 此外，我们注意到，公司另有两家主要的上市前投资者贝恩资本及新天域。贝恩目前持有约10％的公司股份，初始投资成本为2.02港元。新天域目前持有不到1%的公司股份，初始投资成本为2.4港元；
3. 基于这些私募投资者为财务投资者，而非战略投资者，因此我们认为配售股份对融创的营运不会造成任何实质性影响。
高盛观点：
根据高盛测算，公司2012年底4.7倍市盈率，目前股票交易价格为2012年底估值折让57%，相比之下，同行公司为8.8倍市盈率，43%折让；
我们认为，任何因私募基金配售股份而引起的股价回调，都为投资者提供了一个建仓的机会。这是在我们所覆盖的公司中，这是最具有吸引力的公司，因为融创拥有高增长潜力、经验丰富的管理团队、其在中国一线城市坚持的发展战略，以及自2010年上市以来表现出来的超强执行力。
截至下午三点，融创股价一度超过昨日4.75元的收盘价，达到4.80高位。在老股东配售的情况下，股价能实现在一天内即反弹并保持持续上涨势头，实属难得。体现了融创良好的发展势头及股价巨大的上升空间。
