CITI： On the Frontline: Sunac (1918.HK) pre-IPO investor offers Existing Shareholding - An expected event; Improve liquidity while fundamentals remain solid; Buy on any weakeness
One of Sunac's Pre-IPO investors have come to the market to offload the EXISTING share of Sunac (1918.HK) (NOT company's new share placement) Details
• 130 million shares (4.3% of issued share capital)
• Price range of HK$4.28 - 4.38/sh, c.7.8% - 10% discount to the last closing price of HK$4.75/sh (BUT JUST 2.2-4.4% disc before today's spike)
• Total size HK$569mn (USD 73mn)
• Seller is CDH Investments (pre-IPO investor) , all four pre-IPO investors hold c.23%, Chairman Sun owns c. 51.7%, public investors owns 25%.
• CDH Investment holds c. 8.48% before the placement
• Expected strong market response
Citi’s view: Placement well expected ; Fundaments unchange while positive on improving liquidity
** This is an event that market well expected - Given the good profit can be made, why shouldn't they realize? Market responses shall be decent as well.
** In short term, this can exert pressure on share price and become an overhang for more offloading. However, similar to Greentown's previous shareholder' offloading, share price will pick up the uptrend if fundamentals remain sold
** Alternatively, we remain Positive on Sunac given1) Improved liquidity, pre-IPO investors hold c. 23% before the placement while chairman Sun owns c.52%. We believe improved free float % should be positive to the stock performance in future.
2) Visible sales/earning growth outlook. FY12 sales can hit RMB28-30bn, while FY13 will at least RMB40-45bn. One of the highest growth in the sector
3) Continuous solid execution, including recent land aquisitons and penetration into new markets like Hangzhou
4) Valuation still remains cheap - 47% disc to est NAV of HK$5.4/sh and 2013PER 3.6x, attractive
花旗：强劲的基本面的基础上提高了流动性，抓住任何可能的低点买入；融创上市前投资者配售现有股份-符合市场预期;
花旗报告：
配售细节：
• 配售13000万股（占已发行股本的4.3％）；
• 价格：4.28-4.38元，较昨日收市价4.75元，折让7.8%至10%（但只有昨日上涨前股价的2.2-4.4％）
• 总金额：5.69亿港币（约合7300万美元）
• 卖家：鼎晖投资（上市前投资者），四家上市前投资者总持有股份约为23％，董事长孙宏斌持有股份约为51.7％，公众投资者持有25％。
• 鼎晖投资在配售前拥有约为8.48％的股份
花旗观点：配股符合预期，股价基本面不变，同时有效提高流动性
**是次减持股份符合市场预期- 基于可获得良好收益，投资者怎会意识不到？市场反应会很好。
**短期来看，是次股东减持股份会对股价形成压力并带来更多减持量。但是，和绿城早先的股东减持股份一样，在基本面保持出售的前提下，股价会上扬。
**此外，基于以下几个原因，我们仍旧看好融创：
1）流动性得以提高：是次减持股份前，上市前投资者共持有23％的股份，董事长孙宏斌持有52％的股份。我们相信增大流通股票会对股票的未来表现产生积极影响；
2）销售/盈利增长前景可见： 2012财年的销售达到280-300亿人民币，而2013年将达到至少人民币400-450亿人民币，为行业内增长幅度最大的企业之一
3）持续强劲的执行力：包括最近的土地收购以及进入新的市场，如杭州
4）估值仍然很便宜- 47％的折让率、每股估值港币5.4元、2013年3.6倍PE，很有吸引力。
11月23日Bloomberg报道，融创上市前投资者鼎晖昨天以每股4.33港元出售其持有的4.3％（其总控股比例为8.5%）融创股票，较昨天（11月22日）收市价4.75港元折让8.8％，较2012年的最终资产净值预测11.10港元折让61%
截至下午三点，融创股价一度超过昨日4.75元的收盘价，达到4.80高位。在老股东配售的情况下，股价能实现在一天内即反弹并保持持续上涨势头，实属难得。体现了融创良好的发展势头及股价巨大的上升空间。
